New data from NOAA this month has shown that this year’s El Niño has a 70% chance to be the strongest event on record, topping a similar event back in the 1980s.
It’s also more likely that this strengthening El Niño could make next year one of the hottest in record for some parts of the world. Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific are forecast to rise to 3.5 degrees C above average – with the last strong El Niño seeing this number rise to 2.4 degrees C, a staggering difference.
So what does this mean for surfing? We already know El Niño’s impact on surf zones across the South Pacific; the warming sea temperatures helps incubate conditions that lead towards more powerful storms and in turn, larger swells. But add a stick of dynamite to them and what’s the result?
Mexico and the US west coast could see even more powerful conditions over the winter months, as the jet stream and storm track are flushed further south. But that doesn’t always mean it’s going to be brilliant, especially around areas that rely on beachbreaks. Larger storms and longer period swells mean you need an object to essentially cut that swell up. Pointbreaks and reefs will be ideal to lap up that swell, but for the humble beachie, you could be staring down more close-outs across the season.
Related: El Niño vs La Niña: How Pacific Mood Swings Reshape Surf Seasons
There’s also the case of erosion. Bigger swells means more impact on the coastline – and with this powerful El Niño all go, we could see coastal regions get chewed apart. Plus, your once consistent sandbar may get totally obliterated. The up side is, that could totally reshape your dormant beachbreak too – or ruin it for years.
We also know that Hawaii loves an El Niño season. If we look at other strong El Niño events like 1982-83 and 1997-98, these produced some incredible conditions. In January 1998, that historic El Niño swell forced North Shore authorities to issue the first-ever “Condition Black,” legally closing all beaches and canceling the Eddie. Here’s Ross Clarke-Jones talking about that exact day (yeah, he surfed anyway).
With this record-breaking El Niño on the cards, that could effectively mean seeing even larger surf making a bee-line for Hawaii. The data is certainly trending that way, now it’s just a waiting to game to see what comes of the season. We’ll keep you updated throughout.
Related: El Niño 2026 Watch: Latest Updates As Historic Pacific Weather Event Ignites