California’s North Coast is about to get a serious reminder that winter is coming. And the forecast isn’t talking about a few overhead sets.
A powerful train of Gulf of Alaska storms is expected to send some of the biggest surf in years toward Northern and Central California, with breaking waves potentially reaching 30 to 40 feet from late Friday, November 13, through Saturday.
According to the San Francisco Chronicle, significant wave heights—the average of the highest third of waves—could reach 20 to 30 feet offshore between San Francisco and Crescent City. Individual offshore waves could top 50 feet. Even San Francisco’s Ocean Beach could see breakers exceeding 25 feet. See the Chronicle‘s Instagram post below.
Those are enormous numbers, especially this early in the season.
Joe Merchant, a National Weather Service meteorologist, told the Chronicle the conditions could become “pretty problematic.” He expects the ocean to stay “unsettled,” with seven or eight swell pulses possible through Thanksgiving.
And then there’s Maverick’s.
Related: 33-Foot Monster Swell Slams Oregon Coast in Terrifying Videos (Video)
The famed Half Moon Bay big-wave spot can magnify incoming northwest energy into enormous surf. Could this be the first significant Maverick’s session of the El Niño winter? Potentially. But size alone doesn’t guarantee surfable conditions; wind, swell direction, and timing still need to cooperate.
Surfline forecaster Schaler Perry sees the strongest energy favoring breaks north of Point Conception.
“As usual with the more northerly-directed swells, the bulk of the size will show for breaks north of Point Conception,” Perry wrote. “SoCal will be fun, and there will be some peaks at the combo breaks with the latest SSW swell running.”
Ethan Myers, armchair meteorologist, wrote on Instagram:
“HUGE storm waves will be crushing the west coast this weekend as an atmospheric river pushes onshore. We are talking about some areas seeing close to 40 foot swells!”
There’s a dangerous flip side. Already elevated coastal sea levels, associated with unusually warm El Niño waters, mean large waves could push farther up beaches and worsen erosion.
The National Weather Service has cautioned that “waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning,” dragging people off beaches, rocks and jetties. High-surf warnings are considered likely as the weekend approaches.
For expert big-wave surfers, the approaching swell could be an exciting early-season opportunity with the “Super” El Niño showing its teeth. For pretty much everyone else, it’s a good weekend to admire the Pacific from a very safe distance.
Because if these forecasts land, California is about to get absolutely hammered.
Stay tuned.
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