In 2026, surf spots in the Med, Western Atlantic, Pacific, and Gulf of Mexico have all recorded their hottest water temperatures. It’s good for surfing wetsuit-free, but a massive warning for the planet.
According to Brian McNoldy, a climatologist at the University of Miami, sea surface temperatures in parts of the Gulf of Mexico surged to near or above 90°F (32°C) and are currently the hottest in the modern satellite record. Surf-Forecast.com currently has water temperatures at Galveston at 86°F (30.2°C), which is 0.9° above average. Bathlike is an old cliché when it comes to surfers describing the water temp, but if you are paddling out at South Padre, it’s about as close to bang on as it’s ever been in history.
Gulf Surfers aren’t the only ones wanting to add some cold water to the tub. The first half of 2026 saw persistently elevated sea surface temperatures and widespread marine heatwaves across the Mediterranean. On August 5, 2026, the Sa Dragonera buoy off the west coast of Mallorca recorded a water temperature of 91.4°F (33.02°C), believed to be the highest value ever measured in the entire western Mediterranean. And this wasn’t a shallow bay or sun-warmed lagoon, but was recorded by a sensor sitting three meters deep. The same buoy had set the previous record on August 12, 2024, at 89.2°F (31.8°C) — meaning this year’s reading beat that mark by over a full degree Celsius (about 2.2°F).
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On the Atlantic side, with fires burning on land along the western-facing coasts, sea-surface temperatures in the Bay of Biscay also reached unprecedented levels for June. The surf spots of Hossegor, Biarritz, and Lacanau all ran hotter than ever measured for that time of year. At the time of writing in mid-August, Hossegor’s beachies was measuring 76.6°F (24.8°C), well above the long-term average peak for that day of 72.3°F (22.4°C).
The Scripps Pier in San Diego is probably the best bellwether. The Scripps Institute’s station there has continuous data going back to 1916. Between January 1 and late April, 36 separate days set records for the hottest water ever recorded on that specific calendar date. And while the famous all-time high mark itself, 78.6°F (25.9°C), set on August 1, 2018, hasn’t been broken, it seems only a matter of time.
And while surfing without a wetsuit is one of life’s truly great pleasures, surfers might be acting as the frogs in the boiling water metaphor. That fable has a frog that is dropped in boiling water, jumps out, but one placed in tepid water that is slowly heated will stay and boil to death. Scientists have actually debunked this; any live frog with half a brain will feel the discomfort and hop out to save itself.
What is provable science, though, and what surfers know themselves, is that the world’s oceans are on the very frontline of the effects of climate change. NASA and NOAA estimate the ocean has absorbed roughly 90% of all the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases. That’s why the ocean, not the air, is where climate change shows up first and hardest.
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One of the most vivid and frightening examples was discovered at Australia’s Ningaloo Reef last year. The world’s largest fringing reef and UNESCO World Heritage Site is a frog being slowly boiled. “It’s like a raging underwater bushfire that has persisted for months now, wreaking harm right along the coast,” said Paul Gamblin, who heads up the Australian Marine Conservation Society. Of the 1,600 corals counted in last March, only 600 were still alive seven months later, a loss of over 60% in a single season. Or as one tourist put it bluntly, “It was like snorkelling on a corpse.”
Ningaloo isn’t an isolated example; from 2018 through 2025, 87% of coral reef areas worldwide experienced bleaching-level thermal stress. The numbers just don’t lie. 2026 marks the third year in the last four that global sea surface temperatures (SST) have broken records for the date, this time by about 0.1°C over the previous record. On 30 June 2026, the global SST anomaly hit +0.5°C above average — the highest value ever recorded for that specific date.
Surfers all over the world know this instinctively. The steamers are being put on later, the 4/3s are being downgraded to 3/2s, and the boardshorts and bikini tans are lasting longer into the Fall. That’s great for surfing, but fucking terrible for the planet.
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