After months of speculation, debate, hype, online arguments, and increasingly warm water temperatures across the Pacific, it’s finally official.
NOAA has announced that El Niño conditions have formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen through the second half of 2026, potentially becoming one of the strongest events in decades. The agency issued an official El Niño Advisory on Thursday, ending months of anticipation among meteorologists and forecasters.
According to NOAA, there is now a 63 percent chance that sea surface temperatures in the key El Niño monitoring region will exceed 2.0°C above average later this year—a threshold that would place the event in the “very strong” category and among the most significant El Niño events since record-keeping began in 1950.
“Every El Niño is not the same; each one is unique with its own imprint on our weather,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Advanced monitoring and an improved understanding of El Niño patterns allow the NWS to better predict and better prepare the public and our core partners for what is to come.”
For surfers, those words carry plenty of intrigue.
Related: What Is El Niño? Everything to Know About the Climate Phenomenon
Historically, El Niño winters shift the Pacific storm track southward, often producing a more active pattern across the eastern Pacific and delivering larger, more consistent swells to many parts of the West Coast. Southern California, in particular, has experienced some of its most memorable winters during strong El Niño years, with frequent storms, powerful surf, and increased coastal erosion. Hawai’i can also see periods of enhanced North Pacific swell activity, while the Eastern Pacific often becomes more favorable for tropical cyclone development.
Of course, bigger surf often comes with consequences.
El Niño years can bring damaging coastal flooding, beach erosion, dangerous rip currents, and powerful storm surf. NOAA also notes that high-tide flooding risks can increase along portions of the West Coast during strong events.
Whether this develops into the much-discussed “Super El Niño” remains to be seen.
But after months of rumors and speculative forecasts, El Niño has officially arrived. And surfers around the Pacific are already watching the horizon.
Ready, set, go.
Related: El Niño vs La Niña: How Pacific Mood Swings Reshape Surf Seasons
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