In 2017, a land-tethered John John Florence won his second world title at Pipeline. The WSL’s own photos had the Hawaiian celebrating with his friends and family in his backyard. The new WSL CEO Erik Logan, aka E-LO, was shocked that surfing’s newest world champion was crowned not on the podium, or even on the beach, but in a roped-off area on his own porch.
The lore says that was the patient zero moment that led to WSL’s Final Format, which was put in place by 2021. It was designed to have a guaranteed champ, crowned in the last heat of the year to a scheduled TV audience, all under the control of the sport’s governing body. The idea had some merit – and between 2021 and 2025 it led to some iconic crownings. It was, however, let down, though Felipe Toledo may argue the case, by its home base of Trestles.
Turns out three-foot waves, no matter how “skateparky” they are, don’t really add much drama. Even last year’s Finals move to Cloudbreak couldn’t save it. New CEO Ryan Crosby was appointed in late 2024, and quickly announced that he would scrap the Finals concept and the mid-season cut and return to a full calendar with Pipe as the final event.
Related: The 2026 Women’s World Title Race Is Exactly What Surf Fans Want
There were a few important tweaks, though, that meant the new format was effectively a piece of sport gerrymandering. In politics, that’s the redrawing of districts mid-cycle to give a political advantage to a particular party. Or just more death to democracy by a 1000 cuts. In surfing, Pipe was over-indexed by 1.5X points; the two events in Portugal and the Philippines were shed of lower-ranked surfers (let’s call em spoilers), and the top 4 ranked surfers in each division would be seeded straight to the Round of 16 at Pipe.
In gerrymandering or voting terms this is called “packing” (cramming opponents into a few districts) and “cracking” (splitting opposing voters across multiple districts) create heavily lopsided, non-competitive races. In surfing, the desired effect was the opposite. The aim was to have the top-ranked surfers all featured in the final rounds of Pipe, separated by as much as bracket as possible. The goal was to have a Pipe win the best path to a World Title.
The question is, has it worked? With the dust now just about settled from the silver lining that was the Cloud 9 event, the answer looks to be an emphatic yes. The top five in each division are pretty packed. Dora has the yellow jersey on 54,950, Medina on 53,210, then Ferreira (49,335), Colapinto (46,195) and Pupo (45,270). Among the women, Picklum leads on 53,695, with Moore 545 back on 53,150, then Simmers (49,610), Bryan (46,865) and Brooks (44,745).
Related: Fireworks at Cloud 9 as Gabriel Medina and Caity Simmers Win Big
With so many surfers with a mathematical chance of winning, the scenarios are convoluted. But the top-line scenarios make for tasty viewing. A Pipe win makes Dora champion. A Final would also be enough, unless he’s beaten by Medina. Speaking of which, Gabe’s lowest counting score is only 1,000, so he banks almost the full value of whatever he does at Pipe. His floor sits above Dora’s floor, so if they exit in the same round, Medina finishes 580 ahead. In simple terms: a win makes him a 4X champion. A Final would clinch it, unless Dora wins it. Further down the list, Italo, Griff and Miguel will all need to win Pipe, but require earlier exits from those above.
In the women’s, it’s a little tighter, though for the top two of Molly and Carissa, a Pipe win will mean a World Title. For Simmers, a win won’t be enough if Carissa also makes the Final. For Gabriel Bryan, she’ll need a Pipe victory and early exits from the three above her. Brookes is a favourite for the event, but a long, long shot for the Title.
But without going too much into the weeds of the scenarios, it’s the big picture that looks off tap. The last time a World Title was decided at Pipeline was in 2019, when Italo took down Gabe. That was pretty much a two-horse race, though. The women have never had a Pipe showdown, so history will be made irrespective of who wins it. As it stands, surfing hasn’t had this much tension and opportunity riding at Pipe for decades. With the new format, that should be a regular occurrence.
Anyone missing Trestles?
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