No doubt, it’s been a wild summer in Southern California. From the massive swell that kicked things off in June to the recent run of surf, the good times have largely been fueled by tropical energy. And in the immortal words of the late Grateful Dead’s Bob Weir, “You know it’s gonna get stranger, so let’s get on with the show.”
As Labor Day weekend approaches, forecast models are tracking an unusual setup in the eastern Pacific that could bring tropical weather, and potentially a tropical cyclone, uncomfortably close to the Southern California coast. How close? Well, that remains to be seen.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a developing disturbance well southwest of Mexico, designated Invest EP95, with environmental conditions favorable for further organization. As of Monday, the National Hurricane Center was giving the system a high probability of developing into a tropical depression.
That doesn’t mean there’s a 90-percent chance of a hurricane hitting California. It means there’s a high probability the disturbance itself will become a tropical cyclone. Where it goes after that is the big question. And right now, the forecast models aren’t exactly agreeing.
Some models have the system moving generally west or west-northwest, safely offshore. Others show a more unusual scenario in which the storm turns northward toward Baja California and potentially Southern California late this week or over the Labor Day weekend. Then there’s one particularly aggressive model that’s getting plenty of attention, although forecasters stress that it is an outlier and isn’t supported by most major models.
In other words: Southern California could see tropical weather, but a hurricane making landfall is far from the most likely outcome. Of course, it also means the potential for some pumping swell coming at us from some unusual angles with unusual periods. Translation: It could be an ideal time to check all those weird nooks and crannies that only break every once in a great while.
Related: Hurricane Lala Batters Hawaii With Wind, Rain … and Snow?!
Tropical Swell Is Already on the Way
Southern California is currently enjoying a bounty of swell generated by Hurricane Karina, which rapidly intensified into a Category 4 storm over the eastern Pacific. Karina was roughly 1,000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Monday and was moving west, keeping the core of the hurricane well away from the coast.
The National Hurricane Center says Karina-generated swell will affect portions of southwest Mexico and Baja California before spreading north toward Southern California. If the disturbance develops and takes a more northerly track, it could produce another round of tropical swell, increased humidity, and potentially significant rainfall. Even if the system weakens before reaching California, tropical moisture can create meaningful impacts. That’s something Southern Californians learned in August 2023, when Hurricane Hilary weakened before reaching the region but still produced widespread heavy rain, flooding and debris flows.
This year’s setup is particularly interesting because the eastern Pacific is exceptionally warm, and a strengthening El Niño is expected to influence the broader weather pattern. Warm ocean temperatures generally provide additional fuel for tropical systems, while El Niño generally favors increased tropical activity in the eastern Pacific.
The odds of Southern California experiencing some tropical influence this week are real. The odds of a hurricane barreling into Los Angeles or San Diego over Labor Day weekend remain much lower. But with one tropical system already sending swell toward California and another potentially developing farther south, there’s plenty of reason to keep an eye on the Pacific. As we’ve already seen three ocean-related deaths in Laguna Beach this summer, know your limits, and when in doubt, don’t paddle out.
Related: Bodysurfer Dies at Laguna Beach’s Crescent Bay
Original Post from this site