A massive “planetary wave” stretching thousands of miles across the Pacific Ocean is making its way toward Northern California, where oceanographers predict it will temporarily raise sea levels by nearly one foot along the coast and throughout the San Francisco Bay Area.
Driven as a direct consequence of the strengthening Super El Niño, this phenomenon—known scientifically as a Kelvin wave or coastally trapped planetary wave—is moving northward from Equatorial Central America at around 6 mph.
Unlike surf swells that break violently along the shore, planetary waves are imperceptible to the naked eye. This will be subtle, not like a breaking wave, nor a tsunami.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), these vast ocean movements play a fundamental role in global climate systems:
“Oceanic and atmospheric Rossby waves — also known as planetary waves — naturally occur largely due to the Earth’s rotation… They are huge, undulating movements of the ocean that stretch horizontally across the planet for hundreds of kilometers.”
As shifted equatorial trade winds push warm ocean water eastward against Central America, the energy reflects north as a coastally trapped surge. NOAA oceanographers note that while the surface displacement is relatively small—raising sea levels about 10 to 12 inches—the vertical shift in the deeper thermocline far below can be hundreds of feet.
When the wave arrives in the Bay Area, casual beachgoers won’t see a dramatic, towering wall of water crashing onto the sand. Instead, the ocean will quietly bulge upward, temporarily elevating baseline water levels throughout coastal inlets and the San Francisco Bay.
However, meteorologists warn that this extra foot of water poses a major threat once it coincides with seasonal King Tides and winter storm surges later this fall, significantly heightening the risk of low-lying coastal flooding and severe shoreline erosion.
Ahead of the Kelvin wave hitting the Bay Area, meteorologist Zoe Mintz said: “Prepare now. It’s a perfect storm. The king tide, the atmospheric river, and the Kelvin wave all happening at once.”
With the planetary wave expected to reach Northern California by early October, coastal officials are advising low-lying Bay Area communities to begin flood preparations ahead of what promises to be an unpredictable El Niño winter.
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