Sardines, sharks, and just about all sea-adjacent critters often get a little shifty ahead of a big storm. But while oceanographic vessels and satellites have traditionally offered most of our data on developing depressions, sharks can provide critical subsurface metrics, swimming through depths that satellite surface scans and research vessels miss.
Of course, gathering so much sea-surface data could have great implications for surf forecasting, too: The data could inform prediction models’ estimated size, power, and delivery windows of groundswells.
“This is the part of the water column that really drives hurricane intensity,” University of Delaware Marine Scientist Aaron Carlisle told Reuters. “A warmer mixed layer equals [a] stronger hurricane, as it holds the heat that feeds hurricanes.”
Related: Woman Tries to Pet Great White Shark. It Doesn’t Go Well. (Video)
Carlisle and his team at the University of Delaware School of Marine Science and Policy had to be highly selective in choosing their species. Most electronic wildlife tags are built for air-breathing cetaceans, seals, and turtles that break the surface constantly. Sharks, however, don’t breach in order to breathe. To make this work, the UD team focuses on deploying satellite-linked CTD (Conductivity, Temperature, and Depth) tags on pelagic sharks—smooth hammerheads, juvenile great whites, shortfin makos, and blue sharks—along the East Coast of the United States.
Having roving thermometers along the Eastern Seaboard makes for a much larger data set than any conceivable number of buoys or research vessels. The data allows scientists to track the Mid-Atlantic’s seasonal “cold pool,” a massive layer of bottom water that acts as a natural brake or accelerator for storm intensity. The tags also offer marine scientists a rare window into how apex predators behave when intense storms pass overhead—a data set of which the scientific community has a considerable dearth.
A better offshore understanding is vital for coastal mitigation. The tracking is especially crucial now that NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) retired its active updates for the Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters database due to budget constraints. While NCEI still hosts authoritative historical data spanning 1980 to 2024, new open-source initiatives are stepping up to fill the gaps.
So, better hurricane forecasting—and by extension, drastically more accurate groundswell and surf forecasting—courtesy of our own proverbial taxman? We’ll gladly take all they’re willing to share.
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